Miami blows past New York after handing QB Tim Boyle his first start and benching Zach Wilson.
Zack Rosenblatt, KC Joyner and The Athletic NFL Staff
November 26, 2023 at 10:38 AM EST
(Photo: Mike Stobe / Getty Images)
14 New Updates
Black Friday? More like Bleak Friday for the Jets
The Jets have 47 yards of total offense in the first half. They are 0-for-5 on third down. As it turns out, Tim Boyle was not the solution to all of their problems. If the Jets keep going down this path of ineptitude, it seems hard to believe that owner Woody Johnson would be comfortable bringing back all of the key figures from this organization — general manager Joe Douglas, head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett all have their hands in this mess.
Just when it seems the Jets can't go any lower, they find a way to give up a pick six on an end-of-half Hail Mary.
GO FURTHER
No silver linings for Jets as QB woes continue in Black Friday blowout loss to Dolphins
Advertisement
Dolphins lead 17-6 at half
New York picked off Tua Tagovailoa with two seconds left in the first half and it gave Tim Boyle a chance to throw an end-of-half Hail Mary. The play ended up backfiring when Jevon Holland picked off the pass and ran it back across the field for a 99-yard touchdown return.
The shocking play puts Miami up 17-6 at halftime.
Are you actually kidding me?
Oh my God. The Jets just gave up a 99-yard pick six. Unbelievable. Just unbelievable. As I say often: Every week, the Jets do some s--- we've never seen before.
Tua error leads to a pick-six that gets Jets back in the game
Tua Tagovailoa knows better than to take too many chances in a matchup against an opportunistic big-play defense like the Jets, but he did just that by floating a late pass out to the flat. Brandin Echols made Tagovailoa pay for the error by running it back for a touchdown, but a missed extra point makes the score 10-6 in favor of the Dolphins.
Jets' Brandin Echols comes up with pick six
There's not much hope the Jets offense — 47 total yards, two first downs — can score points, but Brandin Echols has them right back in it with a pick six of Tua Tagovailoa. The Jets missed the extra point though — nothing comes easy for them right now — and it's a 10-6 game with less than a minute to play in the first half.
Jets offense is still unwatchable
Over the past three seasons, the Jets are 31st in EPA/dropback and 31st in rushing success. We are in the midst of an all-time unserious run.
And somehow this still feels like the bottom.
Advertisement
Tyreek Hill well on his way to a dominant fantasy point total
Miami wide receiver Tyreek Hill is always a must start prospect in fantasy football, but his fantasy managers had to be concerned about a matchup against a Jets secondary led by Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed.
Those concerns look like they were unwarranted, as Hill has already racked up 16.6 PPR points on the strength of four catches for 64 yards and a touchdown. He also almost had another touchdown and is doing this despite dealing with a foot injury suffered in the first quarter, so Hill is on track to post his eighth game with 20+ PPR points.
Tua Tagovailoa finds Tyreek Hill for the 7-yard TD
Miami takes a 10-0 lead.
Lots of offense turned into few points for the Dolphins in the first quarter
Miami gained 102 yards and five first downs in the first quarter, numbers that pro-rate out to a superb game against a tough defense, but a key fourth-down stop by Sauce Gardner on an end-zone pass to Tyreek Hill stopped one Dolphins drive and another stop on third-and-1 held Miami’s offense in check again. Add it up and it equals the Dolphins beginning the second quarter with only a 3-0 lead.
Tyreek Hill misses a touchdown catch but still has superb fantasy point start
Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill just missed a touchdown catch in the back of the Jets end zone on fourth down, but he still racked up 7.4 PPR points on Miami’s first drive and thus is out to a great fantasy point start today.
Tyreek Hill vs. Sauce Gardner is key matchup to watch
(Photo: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)
One-on-one wide receiver vs. cornerback matchups don’t get much more entertaining than Tyreek Hill vs. Sauce Gardner.
This matchup has the capacity to go in any direction. Gardner is a shutdown cornerback and has the metrics to prove it, but since Week 8 his numbers have taken a bit of a hit, as he has allowed 8.1 yards per target on 15 targets (per Stathead).
That may be why the over/under for Hill’s receiving yards was 77.5 headed into this matchup, with over odds of -135 and under odds of +100 (per BetMGM). That indicates Hill is expected to hit the over, but it should be an interesting subplot to see if Gardner can keep that from happening.
Advertisement
Jets haven’t started fast
(Photo: Bryan Bennett / Getty Images)
The Jets enter the day having gone scoreless on their opening drive in nine of their 10 games this season (90.0%), the worst percentage in the NFL.
New York's only points on a game-opening possession was a FG against the Raiders in Week 10. The Jets haven’t opened a game with a touchdown since Week 12 of last season against the Bears.
How can I watch Dolphins-Jets on Black Friday?
New York Jets D/ST is a fantasy sit candidate this week
The New York Jets D/ST has been a go-to fantasy start candidate for most of the past month and a half, as in the five games from Weeks 5-10 this platoon generated 57 points, at least eight points in every game and 10+ points in four matchups.
The problem in projecting that forward for today’s matchup is that the Jets have played six games against teams that have high powered offenses this season. That list includes Buffalo, Dallas, Kansas City, Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Here is how the Jets have fared fantasy scoring-wise in those matchups:
- Week 1: Buffalo 20.0
- Week 2: Dallas -1.0
- Week 4: Kansas City 4.0
- Week 6: Philadelphia 11.0
- Week 9: LA Chargers 8.0
- Week 11: Buffalo 1.0
That’s three games with 8+ points, but also three games with four or fewer points, with the latter group totaling only four points in that trio of matchups.
That’s probably too hit-or-miss for a fantasy D/ST right now, especially because there are so many good D/ST matchups to choose from this week, so the Jets are best suited as a bench candidate.
For Jets, Steelers and Bills, change for the better before it’s too late
As we prepare for the most thankful, tranquil holiday of the year, the pressure NFL teams face from within tells a different story. They are nearing somewhat self-imposed deadlines to make substantial changes, press eject or head to the exit for the remainder of this season’s race.
In the past week, the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers have changed play callers in an attempt to gain some kind of spark on offense and stay relevant in the AFC playoff race. On Sunday the New York Jets benched their starting quarterback mid-game and on Monday made it a permanent decision. All three teams made the moves with the hope that it’s not too late to save a season — and in some cases jobs.
And after a thorough study of the tape, the winner of all this change might be Jets quarterback Zach Wilson. But more on that later.
GO FURTHER
Mueller: For Bills, Steelers and Jets, change for the better before it’s too late
Risky fantasy scoring path for Garrett Wilson
(Photo: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
One of the biggest question marks for fantasy managers this week is what to do with Garrett Wilson. This wouldn’t have been an issue prior to the benching of Zach Wilson, as Garrett Wilson posted 13.0 PPR points in four straight games (including three games with 17+ PPR points) prior to the Week 11 contest versus Buffalo, but Garrett Wilson posted only 0.9 PPR points versus the Bills.
That shows just how low the floor can be for Wilson, and his road to fantasy scoring redemption this week is quite difficult versus a Miami secondary that has two shutdown cornerbacks.
To get an idea of just how daunting this fantasy scoring path is, consider that Jalen Ramsey has allowed only 3.7 PPR points per game since Week 8, and Xavien Howard isn’t far behind with 5.2 PPR PPG (per Stathead).
Add it up and Wilson has to be considered a risky flex play this week.
Advertisement
De'Von Achane out vs. Jets
Miami's inactives:
- WR Robbie Chosen
- QB Skylar Thompson
- RB De'Von Achane
- CB Eli Apple
- OL Robert Jones
- WR Chase Claypool
Zach Wilson, Allen Lazard inactive; Randall Cobb active for Jets
The Jets bumped one former Packers receiver (Allen Lazard) to a healthy scratch and brought another (Randall Cobb) up after a few weeks in the same boat. It’s a steep fall for Lazard, who signed a $44 million contract this offseason and has been a massive disappointment.
Mekhi Becton had a chance to play this week but didn’t feel up for it as the week progressed and his ankle was still hurting. Rookie Carter Warren will likely start at left tackle with Duane Brown serving as an emergency backup before he’s ready to fully return.
Jets inactives vs. Dolphins
New York's inactives:
- WR Allen Lazard
- OT Mekhi Becton
- CB Michael Carter II
- DE Carl Lawson
- QB Zach Wilson
- OL Austin Deculus
Randall Cobb is active.
Load more updates
ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57y6KtnmWSobyov46dpqWomJ67tHnVrGSjnaSoeq211Z5krJufp7Juwc%2BdmK2do2K1qrPHpaCgoKSofLSD2KeiboKmhsOGro6Po3ykkpnHiZ3Jsalo