The Athletic has live coverage of the Big Ten championship game featuring Michigan vs. Iowa
Michigan beat Ohio State 30-24 in the most-viewed regular-season college football game since 2011. The No. 2 Wolverines won the Big Ten East Division and are one victory away from a third consecutive Big Ten championship and College Football Playoff berth.
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All that stands in the way of a Jim Harbaugh coronation is pesky little No. 16 Iowa, which won the Big Ten West Division without surpassing 30 points in any league games this year. The Hawkeyes have the nation’s worst-ranked offense by nearly 24 yards per game. By point spread (currently 21.5), it’s the biggest mismatch on paper in the Big Ten championship era. Based on perception, David had better odds against Goliath.
Does Michigan steamroll Iowa or will the Hawkeyes keep it closer than expected? The Athletic beat reporters Austin Meek (Michigan) and Scott Dochterman (Iowa) break it down.
Can Iowa be in this game at halftime? If so, how?
Dochterman: That’s heavy right out of the gate. Yes, I think Iowa can compete for a while with Michigan. It’s obvious the Hawkeyes have little to no margin for mistakes. There’s no such thing as a good turnover, but one that takes points off the board or gives Michigan an easy score will kill Iowa’s chances quicker than a couple of three-and-outs.
It’s going to take solid play along the line of scrimmage. The Hawkeyes have a terrific defense but no true superstar up front. Iowa gives up 104.9 rushing yards per game and its two-gap scheme often keeps linemen off its linebackers, which is why Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson rank first and seventh in tackles among Big Ten defenders. If Iowa can make Michigan one-dimensional, it has a chance to frustrate quarterback J.J. McCarthy and perhaps lead to mistakes.
On offense, Iowa must run the ball. It has steadily improved in that area and is 9-0 when reaching 100 rushing yards. It won’t be easy because Michigan knows that, too. But if Iowa is forced to throw out of necessity, this game could get out of hand awfully quick.
Michigan has played with an edge all season and specifically the last few weeks with Harbaugh’s three-game suspension. The Wolverines left no doubt they are the league’s best team. What’s their mentality with Harbaugh back and the Buckeyes slayed again?
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Meek: Michigan is on a mission to win a national championship. That’s been the case from the moment Blake Corum and several other seniors announced they were coming back. Nobody expected that the last month of the season would be this dramatic, but the Wolverines came out of it 12-0 and have reason to think they’ve weathered the storm.
Getting Harbaugh back should give the team a boost, though Michigan didn’t seem to miss him against Ohio State. A lot of people at Michigan had harsh words for the Big Ten when commissioner Tony Petitti suspended Harbaugh, and everyone will be watching intently if Petitti is handing Harbaugh the championship trophy on the stage after the game. Michigan is going to keep playing with an edge, but I don’t expect anything crazy. This week is more about taking care of business than settling scores with the Big Ten.
The distractions never seem to go away completely, but they’ve faded into the background a bit since Saturday’s win. Michigan should be able to focus its energy on Iowa and then get ready for whatever comes next.
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Michigan played Iowa two years ago in this game and rolled the Hawkeyes 42-3. Michigan’s starting quarterback was Cade McNamara, who transferred to Iowa but went down with a knee injury in September. The Hawkeyes also lost star cornerback Cooper DeJean in mid-November but still finished 10-2. Is there a reason to think this matchup will go differently than the last one?
Dochterman: Not really, although I think it might be closer to what we saw at Kinnick last year at 27-14. When we look at these potential mismatches, we tend to see all of the blemishes for one team and the best qualities of the other. That’s fair, but barely two weeks ago Michigan struggled to beat Maryland. Iowa played its best game in a 22-0 win against Rutgers, who put up a fight against Michigan earlier this year. Of course, Michigan’s games against Minnesota and Nebraska show the other side of that, too.
McNamara was a killer loss because the team had invested so much into him — not only as their quarterback, but as their leader. His replacement, Deacon Hill, has been inconsistent at best. He has a strong arm, but struggles with accuracy and is not a running threat. Losing former Michigan tight end Erick All plus top tight end Luke Lachey also hurts the offense. Not to say Iowa would be a juggernaut, but it would have had perhaps a puncher’s chance of executing in ways it struggles with.
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DeJean also was an elite punt returner and was preparing for offensive snaps, so his loss is devastating. I think the defense mostly can compete — at least for a while — but the lack of offensive movement will prevent this from being competitive in the second half.
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McCarthy had a terrific game against Ohio State. He showed his potential against a great defense and his numbers are outstanding. Last year, he was methodical against Iowa and it worked. How much has he improved this year and what does he need to showcase against another high-level defense Saturday?
Meek: McCarthy has taken the leap you’d expect a five-star recruit to make in his second full season as a starter. He played well last season, but Michigan was a heavy run team and didn’t ask McCarthy to carry the offense, at least not until the end of the season. This year the Wolverines have been much more balanced, in part because McCarthy has improved and in part because the running game hasn’t been as dominant.
McCarthy averages 9.7 yards per pass attempt, up from 8.4 yards per attempt last year, and has been hitting big plays at a higher rate. He’s also dangerous with his legs, though he was dealing with an injury late in the season that limited his ability as a runner. It sounds like he’s close to 100 percent, so there shouldn’t be many limitations for him in this game.
McCarthy is aggressive but rarely reckless, aside from two games this season — Bowling Green and Maryland — when he put the ball in harm’s way. Iowa’s defense is one of the best in the nation at turning bad decisions into interceptions, so McCarthy’s decision-making will be a big key.
Former five-star recruit J.J. McCarthy has blossomed in his second full season starting at Michigan. (Greg Fiume / Getty)Is there a player on Iowa that people should keep an eye on? The punter is an acceptable answer, but that might be too obvious.
Dochterman: Yeah, I think Tory Taylor has a shot at setting the championship game record for punts and yardage. There’s got to be a prop bet on that, right?
Seriously, there are a few players who will be instrumental in Iowa’s hopes of keeping this game close. On defense, it starts with Higgins, an Indianapolis native, at middle linebacker. He had the unenviable task of replacing All-American Jack Campbell and all he’s done is lead Power 5 defenders with 141 tackles. He’s not the same player as Campbell, but Higgins has been tremendous.
On the offensive side, I’d say running back Leshon Williams quietly has produced a solid year. He has rushed for 779 yards and helped elevate Iowa’s run game beyond the doldrums of the last few years. Of course, he’s going against the best rush defense he has faced this year.
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Michigan has plenty of household names littered on its unofficial two-deep. Beyond the no-brainers like McCarthy or Corum, who has a chance to impact this game that few people recognize this season?
Meek: I’ll go with right tackle Trente Jones, who is stepping into the starting lineup after Zak Zinter’s gruesome leg injury. People might have seen Jones wearing No. 93 and running onto the field as a jumbo tight end in certain formations this year. He was Michigan’s starting right tackle at the beginning of last season but went down with an ankle injury, which opened the door for Karsen Barnhart to become a full-time starter. Barnhart has played all over the offensive line and shifted from right tackle to right guard after Zinter went down. From the sounds of things, Michigan will keep Barnhart at guard and roll with Jones at right tackle.
Jones, a borderline top-100 recruit in the Class of 2019, is a talented player whose playing time has suffered because of Michigan’s depth on the offensive line. This feels like his moment to show what he can do.
OK, here’s the all-important question. Will Petitti hand Harbaugh the championship trophy with both hands, like NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle did to Al Davis following Super Bowl XV?
Meek: The Big Ten’s first trophy toss might be in order if Harbaugh and Petitti don’t want to shake hands. They should get ready for the exchange because I do expect Michigan to win, though not by the huge margin we saw in 2021. I’ll say Michigan 28, Iowa 9.
Dochterman: I expect Michigan to win. I also think Iowa will make it more difficult than a Napoleonesque self-crowning. I’ll go with Michigan 27, Iowa 16.
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(Top photo of Blake Corum (2) during the 2022 regular-season game between Michigan and Iowa: Keith Gillett / Icon Sportswire via Getty)
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